Over the past decade, the City of Lowell has embraced residential development as part of a comprehensive downtown redevelopment strategy. By broadening the mix of uses, Lowell has been able to complement the workday population with greater evening and weekend activity Downtown. The City’s embrace of apartments and condominiums was prompted by observations of market and demographic trends and the recognition that Lowell was well-situated to take advantage of these trends.
This success reinforces that Lowell correctly anticipated and continues to effectively respond to social and demographic trends which result in a compelling market demand for urban housing and related development. The three major growth areas among American households currently are young singles, couples, and non-traditional families, empty-nesters and early retirees, and immigrants. All three are groups which have traditionally favored city living. Rising energy costs have only served to bolster the demand for walkable urban neighborhoods well-served by transit, a trend that is likely to continue over the long term.
A recent analysis of residential condominium sales completed by staff from the Division of Planning and Development further bolsters this theory and strategy. While Eastern Massachusetts residential real estate prices have declined since a 2005 peak, Downtown Lowell condominiums continued to appreciate in value through 2007. In fact, in all but one building, values for condominium sales have increased relative to prior sales and continue to do so. Downtown condominium prices, which mirrored the prices elsewhere in the City through 2006, were valued at nearly 50% more than those in other areas of Lowell in 2007.
Because of the strength of the Downtown market, condo sales overall in Lowell have also held their value considerably more strongly than single-family homes.
As the overall real estate market in Lowell appears to be showing signs of improvement with significant increases in sales volumes over the past few months, look to Downtown to continue to perform well. This also bodes well for commercial development as employers, retailers, and others tend to seek locations with strong and stable populations, especially in a service economy. The three dozen new businesses that have opened in Downtown since 2000 are a local example of this. We can also expect to increasingly see the concept of live-work properties expand well beyond the artist community, with urban locations like Downtown Lowell at the forefront.



There can be no question that residential development in the downtown neighborhood has been a roaring success. We can now say for certain that the boom from the late 90s until recently was not just a reflection of the upswing in the housing market overall, but also a reflection of a longer-term upward trend for downtown.
But what about the commercial end of things? It is true that there are new businesses, but there are also old businesses that have closed. What has happened to vacancy rates in storefronts? Obviously, they are going to show the effects of the business cycle, too, but would they also show a similar longer-term improvement? It would be interesting to see retail vacancy rates and prices in downtown plotted alongside the rates for the state or region, as was done for residential prices.
How will we know if the residential boom downtown is sparking the commercial redevelopment projected in the Comphrehensive Plan?
Joe from Lowell,
I appreciate your thoughtful comment and am working with our Department of Planning and Development to prepare a response.
It seems that we are heading to a critical mass of downtown residents to support many of the businesses that are there, or may move into the downtown. The City’s foresight in anticipating the return to urban living should be congratulated.
Going forward, I would like to see some enterprises develop in or near the downtown that could produce what I would call “value added” jobs, ones that bring wealth into the City. Any such wealth will certainly distribute to other businesses within the City. One area where such jobs could locate would be the Dutton Street corridor of the extended JAM plan, in a section designated by Trinity Financial as buildings 15, 16 & 17. Since that area may be the last to be developed as part of the Hamilton Canal District, it may be 10 years before it can be populated. However, now may be the time to work with UML to strategize how the educational sector may prepare area students to be valuable potential employees for jobs of the future, and for the City to investigate the possible corporations that would make best use of the opportunities provided by an educated workforce and a receptive, attractive urban environment.
Commercial vacancy rates in Lowell compare favorably with the region.
Office space vacancy
Lowell = 8.9%
Greater Boston = 9.7%
Rte 3 North Area = 12.07%
Industrial/R&D/Warehouse space vacancy
Lowell = 12.0%
Greater Boston = 12.4%
Rte 3 North Area = 14.4%
Retail
Lowell = 2.7%
Greater Boston = 5.4%
Rte 3 North Area = 2.8%
Congratulations on today’s announcement that the State has designated the Hamilton Canal District as a “Growth District”. That should help break down some barriers to progress, and expedite the process. Let’s hope it is followed quickly with action on the Courthouse Site.
This doesn’t really have anything to due with Downtown revitilization, but what about fixing other parts of the city? Who thought it would be a good idea to close the bridge a day before school starts? I mean they had the entire summer to begin work, why wait until school starts? Now I have to fight to get out of my own driveway on what is usually a quiet street. Now it is bumper to bumper from 6-9AM